3 February 2025

Extreme heat is set to reduce the academic attainment of Australian students by up to seven per cent, which could translate to $73,000 in lost earnings during their lifetime, according to a landmark new report.

For the first time, the Zurich-Mandala Climate Risk Index has been used to analyse the risk of climate change to 9,829 primary and secondary schools across Australia.

The index uses IPCC climate modelling along with Zurich’s proprietary climate impact assessments to understand the unique risks faced by individual schools.

Extreme heat is projected to reduce writing, spelling, grammar & punctuation, and numeracy by over 7% in some parts of the country by 2060, with students in the Northern Territory and Queensland disproportionately impacted.

Two-thirds of schools in Australia currently face high climate risk. This is set to increase to 84% of schools by 2060 under an intermediate climate scenario with 2 degrees Celsius of warming.

Australian students are projected to experience 34 annual heatwave days by 2060.

New South Wales and Queensland have the highest volume of schools at risk with 92% and 91% respectively in the highest three risk categories. The Australian Capital Territory and the Northern Territory follow closely behind.

Disadvantaged schools face higher climate risk with 80% of schools in low Socio-Educational Advantage percentiles facing significant climate risk, compared with around 60% of schools with high advantage levels. Of the ten most at-risk schools in Australia, most are government schools with low Socio-Educational Advantage facing high bushfire and flood risk.

Nationally, increased chances of bushfire and hail pose the greatest climate risk to Australia’s schools, but there is considerable variation based on location with inland schools facing greater risk than those on the coast.

Alex Morgan, Head of General Insurance, Zurich Financial Services Australia (Zurich) said:

"Key social infrastructure, such as Australia’s schools, which currently support the development of more than four million children, have repeatedly suffered the consequences of our changing climate, resulting in reduced capacity to effectively teach and learn.

"As an insurer of many Australian schools, Zurich is acutely aware of this growing physical and societal risk.

"Quantifying how climate change could alter Australia's education system underlines the importance of building the resilience of Australian schools to reduce the significant impacts on children’s academic attainment, future employment and wage outcomes and broader disparities in socio-educational advantage.

"It also serves to highlight how the risk intelligence held by insurers can be used to tangibly understand and respond to the very real impacts of climate change and inform our collective action."

Dr Adam Triggs, Partner, Mandala said:

“High classroom temperatures can slow children’s cognitive ability and cognitive function, impairing the way students make decisions and process and retain information.

“Under a 2C temperature rise by 2060, our modelling shows this could equate to a $73,000 reduction in lifetime earnings – the equivalent of missing an entire year of employment.

“Perhaps most troubling is how climate risks compound existing inequalities. The same schools already facing socio-educational disadvantage are often those most exposed to climate impacts, creating a double burden for vulnerable communities.”

A full version of the report is available here.

-ENDS-